Go back to Special Report front pageSAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 5, 1994 -- Despite a last-minute surge of people registering to vote and a novel program allowing people to cast ballots on the two weekends leading up to Tuesday's election, the San Francisco Registrar of Voters projects a 55 percent turnout.
During the governor's race 12 years ago, 63.4 percent of the registered voters went to the polls, eight years ago it was 61.4 percent and four years ago the number dropped to 57.8 percent. San Francisco has 450,000 registered voters, 30,000 of whom are new to the rolls -- thanks largely to registration drives by women' groups, black churches, gay groups, Republicans and the local media.
In an attempt to whip up more enthusiasm, San Francisco participated in a statewide pilot project allowing people to vote at 10 neighborhood polling places during the past two weekends. During the first week, 1,000 people showed up.
Pollster David Binder who doubles as a local political pundit, thinks the Registrar's projection may be low. He predicted a "healthy turnout." The draws: Proposition 187 on the state ballot, which would deny undocumented immigrants government services; and the hot Senate race between Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Republican Congressman Michael Huffington.
"I don't think there's any local issue that's really going to incite people to come out in big numbers. If there was something like a ballpark measure or a proposed smoking control, maybe. But there isn't.''
The measures drawing the biggest interest in San Francisco are Mayor Jordan's plan to ban people from sitting or lying on sidewalks in commercial districts; an initiative championed by labor, environmental and neighborhood groups to impose a transit assessment fee on downtown commercial property owners; and a proposal to turn oversight of the Bureau of Building Inspection over to a citizens commission.
There also are five seats open on the Board of Supervisors and three each on the Community College Board and the Board of Education.
The race to watch in terms of what effect voter turnout will have, said Binder, is who will come out first in the supervisors' race. The top vote-getter is anointed president of the board -- a high-profile position that some see as a springboard to higher office.
The turnout can mean the difference between whether Supervisor Annemarie Conroy or Supervisor Carole Migden -- the two favored for the post -- will become president of the board. Conroy, the more conservative of the two, would probably fare better with a lower voter-turnout. "A higher turnout tends to bring out a more liberal, progressive mix,'' said Binder.
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