Oakland Mayoral Race Hinges on Turnout

Challenger Hoping for Less Than 40%

OAKLAND, Nov. 7, 1994 -- Both sides in Tuesday's race for Oakland mayor agree that turnout is everything. If few traditional Democrats in the flatlands go to the polls and a high number of affluent voters in the hills voice their unease over taxes and government in general, businessman Ted Dang could defeat Major Elihu Harris.

But if Harris musters enough volunteers in his get-out-the-vote drive planned for tomorrow, long-time Democrats could boost him to a second term.

The key to the equation is the black vote. Some veterans of Oakland neighborhood politics say getting African American voters to support a black candidate is simply a mechanical exercise: Fill black-majority precincts with volunteers on election day, and the result is assured.

While that may have been true in the past, it may not be so today. Here's why:

Due to an influx of Asian American and Hispanic residents, many Oakland neighborhoods are no longer primarily black. For two generations, many black Oaklanders could work in manufacturing and distribution plants in their own neighborhoods, East and West Oakland. Many of those jobs are gone, and, with them, some of the bonds that held the black communities together.

Rather than mounting a citywide get-out-the vote drive in the runoff election, Dang has a two-pronged strategy he hopes will make him the city's first Asian American mayor. First, he is counting on a good turnout from middle-class and affluent voters who want change at City Hall - and thinks a turnout of less than 40 percent would work in his favor. Second, he has been actively courting key "swing'' precincts: largely black areas that turned away from Harris in June and supported candidates such as minister Yusef Bey and Supervisor Mary King.

In the flatlands, Dang has walked precincts and met with religious leaders of large black congregations. Although none of the ministers endorsed the businessman, he has made his presence felt. Former Alameda County Supervisor Warren Widener, who is supporting Dang, said the businessman could get 30 percent of the flatlands vote.

Additionally, Dang has run a strong campaign and has been more personally involved than Harris, and his career as an entrepreneur interests voters who are worried about their economic future.

Other factors that make Harris' re-election less than a sure thing have to do with the candidate himself. Harris has a strong record on jobs and crime, but the ex-legislator has failed to breathe much personal force into the mayor's office. He is trapped in the conventions of lawyering and legislative insiderism - acting more like a member of a Democratic caucus than a leader.

Friend and foe alike say Harris' style saps his office of the authority it might otherwise have.

No one is more aware of the difficulty of his position than Harris himself. And, say supporters, such as the Reverend Frederick Murph of First African Methodist Episcopal Church in North Oakland, Harris is listening to advice that he must be a less aloof mayor.

Major Oakland church leaders, watching Harris' painful shedding of his legislative skin in the past year, are supporting the mayor. On the opposite pole of Oakland politics, the corporate community is satisfied that Harris is maturing and believes he should get another chance.

The Harris campaign hopes to field 400 volunteers election day, one for each precinct. It is hoping that 20,000 people who vote occasionally will come out for Harris. That is a high reach. If successful, the effort would boost the citywide turnout to between 40 percent and 45 percent, up from 34.4 percent in June. The turnout in November 1990 was 55.7 percent, and that was when Harris was new and voters were less cynical.

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